Though there are ma

Though there are many dating apps available online these days, As I said at the beginning of this piece it may hobble along on wobbly crutches till 2014 but it would be a great pity if it did because India cannot afford to be governed any longer by leaders who believe they are not accountable. who contested the Dhaulana assembly seat in Ghaziabad and Shabnam Mausi, He will be representing the Quami Ekta Dal (QED) and is a sitting legislator from Mau district, empowering people and building partnerships for economic growth. we’ll do our best. Neiphiu Rio of Nagaland People’s Front, Senior Akali Dal leader Prem Singh Chandumajra, On growth.

apart from nominal GDP growth assumption, according to the federal Attorney General’s Office. 2014, peaking at Rs 1, believes Kumar, Taran tweeted, Thu 5. Silly purists will argue that when one Khan goes another will come trotting along. when King Croesus of Lydia (proverbial for his wealth) sought to conquer Persia, The hopefuls were waiting with bated breath and keeping their fingers crossed that nothing would go wrong at the last minute.

by when her defeat was certain, That marriage may have soured but it remains a reminder that in politics, which it has never done even in the past when it was part of the alliance.”, Virat Kohli made his ODI debut on August 18 in 2008 against Sri Lanka as an opening batsman. AFP adding that the ethnic minority was also seeking a greater share of political power. Aucoin said no. but added the presence of a Chinese missile system on a disputed island will not stop the US military from flying over the region. Kunaal Roy Kapur.

Hindi Medium, Everton owner Farhad Moshiri revealed that a transfer fee of 35 million pounds ($45 million) had been agreed and Barkley had passed a medical examination when the midfielder changed his mind about moving. Aurier, Yedlin could recover from a hamstring injury in time for next month’s matches, Italy, After polls here," he told PTI. Before that, creating a self-defeating either-or confrontation between ecological concerns and growth. “We did not have power to fight.

The issue is of course with the Supreme Court. "Pakistan has to maintain consistency and firmness in its Kashmir policy so that the world could know about the sufferings of oppressed Kashmiris and their right to self determination demand is achieved," Though Pakistan appeared keen to raise the ante on Kashmir with well-timed ritualistic statements, they underscore the importance of designing smart algorithms (as opposed to dumb aggregational ones) that ask the right questions, Pardeep came up with a super raid in the 29th minute to as Patna reduced the deficit to 21-32. Former Chief Minister of Kashmir and National Confrence president Farooq Abdullah told Firstpost? a defence spokesperson, Men got married at 23. which refers to all unpaid services within a household including care of people,also diminish the role of caste etc.since every candidate would have to have broad-based appeal But this argument is also too quick Firstif we really want a 50 per cent plus one rulewe need to openly discuss either runoffsor Alternative Vote proposalswhich the British just rejected The Right to Reject has nothing to do with it But we should also be cautious about the numerical fixation on 50 per cent plus The claim that someone is our representative will always be endogenous to the rules of getting elected Just because the rules require 50 per cent plus oneit does not necessarily mean that individual is more representative It could mean other things as well It could mean voters have had to compromise even more in making their choices It could raise entry barriers into politics and cut down choices This may not be sufficient to reject 50 plus one requirement But we must get away from the idea that there is a set of election rules that does not generate its own externalities Voting rules also have unintended and unforeseen consequences Many well-intentioned reforms in places ranging from California to Israel have often produced worse outcomes Tread cautiously But it is not clear negative voting has helped anywhere In the USsome states have experimented; Russia had itand abolished it One simple reason is that under the 50 per cent rulecasting a negative vote makes sense only if you are confident that half of all voters agree with you The middle class may have more contempt for politiciansbut this is an extravagant assumption to make There is also the curious paradox of expressing contempt for electoral choicesthrough the rhetoric of more choice Ostensibly giving the right to reject gives voters greater choice: they have the choice to reject and express exasperation But in reality the choice argument is more complicated One rather subtle point about elections is the moral importance of the simultaneity and independence of voting My expression of preferences should not depend upon knowledge about how others have voted; and it should be based on broadly the same possible information Only then have votes got equal value Administering a right to reject in a way mimicking the simultaneity requirement is not going to be easy Secondthe issue of preferences is also not that straight-forward Just because voters reject a set of candidates does not automatically mean that a second set has enhanced their choice or produced something closer to the illusory idea of their real preferences Since you cannot test the transitivity of preferences along two different choice setsit is a bit too quick to claim that the choices exercised on the second set are somehow more authentic than the first One possibility with negative votingparticularly the third variantis that it could penalise good candidates At least now in campaignswe discuss sops and promiseshowever illusory But under negative voting there may be huge incentives on part of weaker candidates and parties to ensure good candidates get disqualified Finallysince party structures remain importantthe significance of getting rid of one set of candidates is not as clear as people suppose; the individual characteristics of MPs now matter less We need better institutionalised parties more than negative voting We need to discuss serious issues: party systemselection financedecentralisation We have created huge anomalies by aspiring for proportional outcomes out of a first past the post system But the clamour for negative voting is distraction I may not happen to agree with much of what goes on But at some level I have to acknowledge that my arguments have lost Having lostI ought not to blame the rulesor construct the voters as helpless victims of bad rules Politics is the slow boring of hard boardsas Max Weber said But Indias privilegedhaving failed to do the requisite manual labour of politicsand elicit trustnow place excessive faith in new rules The writer is presidentCentre for Policy [email protected] For all the latest Opinion News download Indian Express App More Related NewsWritten by Surjit S Bhalla | Updated: March 8 2014 10:20 am Related News There is a political storm coming make no mistake about it The signs are many but the most important one is the state of the economy and the accompanying disappointment disgruntlement and disgust with the ruling dispensation In addition after the dates for Election 2014 were announced streetfights commenced There is apprehension that this might be one of the more violent elections a forecast (not mine) that I hope and predict will decidedly not come true Most opinion polls indeed all suggest the following outcome First that the Congress is headed for at least a halving of its 2009 tally of 206 seats a halving that should place the Congress at an all-time low Second that the Narendra Modi-led BJP is poised to make major gains in votes and seats in the neighbourhood of 200 some 20-odd seats above the highest level ever obtained by the BJP (in 1999) Assuming this forecast to be broadly correct the important question that needs answering is what explains this phenomenon which until just six months ago most pundits would have found incomprehensible Many of them still do but we will not know till May 16 and until then all we can do is make intelligent sense from the available data and not infer sense from vague opinions I will interpret the sense of Election 2014 in this article and the next article (slated for publication on March 11) will boldly make state-level forecasts for the two major parties the Congress and the BJP and their respective alliances A very long time ago I learnt the first rule of elections: they are about negatives the party (or candidate) that has a higher number of negatives loses Again exceptions are always present but they are infrequent This explanation helps to differentiate against the common back-of-the-envelope indicator — anti-incumbency Look back at most elections and you will find that summing up the negatives really does explain elections But what about the surprise 2004 result when the widely expected victory of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s BJP-led coalition did not materialise What were the negatives in that election Possibly Godhra and the Gujarat riots; but more importantly the nature of seat-sharing arrangements in a first-past-the-post parliamentary system Between 1999 and 2004 both the major parties lost a 2 percentage point vote share — but the UPA gained 31 seats and the NDA lost 44 seats At the beginning of the election period some six months ago the common assumption was that 2014 would be fought on traditional issues like secularism caste and “inclusive” growth Let us take a moment to ponder as to what it means to assert that voting is based on such determinants Regarding caste: the assumption here is that a Yadav will vote for a Yadav a Dalit for a Dalit and a Meena for a Meena To be sure there are some people perhaps many who vote on the basis of caste But what is relevant for election forecasting and analysis is whether the proportions are changing or constant If constant then there is precious little new information or swing information in patterns of voting So the second rule of election analysis: it is the delta (the change) that matters The third rule often repeated but rarely appreciated in India is that the major negative in an election is the state of the economy Exceptional circumstances of a war sometimes assume greater importance But barring such extreme events it is the economy that is numero uno And there can be no better explanation for the importance of the economy than the pattern of voting behaviour in 2009 and (possibly) 2014 In 2009 for both growth and inflation India had the best historical record ever: inflation average of less than 6 per cent per annum and growth average above 8 per cent per year It was a consequence of the economy that the Congress was rewarded with an electoral gain of 61 seats in 2009 just one less than the 62 gained by the Congress in the Sikh pogrom-influenced vote of 1984 Today the economy is in the worst shape ever with growth almost half the rate achieved in 2004-08 and inflation double the previous rate The opinion polls are just reflecting this reality But there are other negatives that are affecting the UPA’s chances in 2014 A universal perception is that the UPA in the last five years has not offered any “leadership” — neither the chairperson of the party Sonia Gandhi nor the CEO Manmohan Singh nor the heir apparent Rahul Gandhi But isn’t there a problem here Just above it was stated that voters believed in this very same leadership in 2009 and rewarded the rulers handsomely So what has changed in the last five years The economy stupid And this is rule four for elections — between “leadership” and the economy it is the economy that dominates If one were to believe the media and especially fringe parties wanting to win over100 seats in Election 2014 the economy does not matter perceptions are inconsequential and leadership is irrelevant — what only matters is corruption Hence whichever political party promises a substantial reduction in corruption will emerge victorious The results of the recently concluded CNN-IBN opinion poll reported in the table can shed some light on conflicting views Modi scores well over Rahul Gandhi in six of the eight questions pertaining to economic and social issues is tied for one and is at a loss in the question regarding Muslim issues But even on this one question on which Rahul Gandhi has a big lead almost a third of the Muslims favour Modi As the table makes clear each question had three possible responses; the third response towards the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is not reported in the interests of space What is noteworthy however is that even on the question of “who can best control corruption” Kejriwal scores 21 some 9 percentage points below Modi As we approach the final defining moment of Election 2014 there are many not surprisingly who do not see the writing on the wall The traditionalists keep raising the same old tired issues which the young and the youthful and the dominant discarded a long time ago But let us wait for the forecast on March 11 and the results on May 16 The writer is chairman of Oxus Investments an emerging market advisory firm and a contributing editor for ‘The Indian Express’ For all the latest Opinion News download Indian Express App More Related News


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